Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin long traders lost $584 million in a single Monday session, the largest long wipe-out since early February.
- Bitfinex analysts place BTC’s critical support at the May Monthly Open of $76,318, aligning with the 30-day accumulator cohort cost basis near $76,500.
- Stablecoin market cap reached $322 billion, adding $2 billion in a week, signaling dry powder available for a potential push above $80,000.
BTC Longs Drop $584M in One Session as Bitcoin Tests May Monthly Open Support
The sell-off came as Donald Trump posted on social media about potential military action against Iran, lifting the risk premium across global markets. Diplomatic efforts from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE tempered the move, but traders were already unwinding exposure.
Brent crude settled between $110 and $112 per barrel as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a 16-month high of 4.7%, repricing duration-sensitive assets lower across the board.
Bitcoin opened the week at $77,385, slid below $77,000 on Monday, and touched a session low of $76,031. In the latest report, Bitfinex analysts noted the failure to hold $80,000 was in line with their expectations, citing confluence from onchain metrics including the Short-Term Holder Realised Price and the True Market Mean.
Total crypto futures liquidations reached $657 million on Monday, with $584 million coming from long positions. Bitfinex analysts described it as the largest single-session long wipe-out since early February. Open interest dropped roughly $1.5 billion late last week, with an additional decline on Monday as well.
By Wednesday morning, bitcoin had recovered to just above $77,500, retesting the Weekly Open of $77,385. Bitfinex analysts said sustained taker-side demand is required to continue the recovery trend forming on mid-timeframes.
The immediate support level is anchored by the 30-day accumulator cohort, whose cost basis sits near $76,500. Bitfinex analysts said this aligns closely with the May Monthly Open of $76,318, and they expect the zone to hold as a short-term floor.
Resistance sits at $85,900, where investors who bought between November 2024 and February 2025 reach breakeven and may look to reduce positions. With bitcoin trading below the short-term holder realized price of roughly $79,000 for several sessions, that group now represents overhead supply that could limit recoveries.
Exchange reserves fell to a seven-year low of 2.21 million BTC. Long-term holder supply held steady at 14.43 million BTC. Bitfinex analysts said the price decline reflects weakened demand rather than rising supply.
In derivatives, the short squeeze fuel from prior sessions has been exhausted, and recent long buyers have been cleared out. Any directional move will likely require spot market activity rather than futures positioning to lead the way.
Stablecoin market capitalization rose to $322 billion, adding $2 billion over the week. Both USDt and USDC saw significant minting. Bitfinex analysts noted the liquidity is available but has not yet been deployed toward a recovery above $80,000.
Bitcoin dominance held near 60%, and the Altcoin Season Index stayed well below rotation thresholds. XRP and SOL drew some inflows tied to active ETF cycles, while HYPE outperformed most large-cap altcoins on the back of positive catalysts.
Gold stayed below $4,550 despite elevated yields and geopolitical conflict. Silver traded in line with industrial assets on U.S.-China trade developments. Bitcoin continued to correlate with long-duration tech assets, declining alongside other risk-sensitive markets as the Nasdaq’s six-week rally cooled.
