Bitcoin Price Holds $83K as Bitfinex Says Leverage Has Cleared

Bitcoin options carry a split personality into October, with calls accounting for 60.88% of outstanding positions, according to Coinglass stats. October has traditionally treated bitcoin well, earning the month the “Uptober” moniker among crypto proponents. Yet while most Octobers since 2013 have finished in the green, the pattern broke in 2025 when bitcoin failed to deliver a gain despite hitting a new high early in the month.

At the same time, September, historically one of bitcoin’s more punishing months over the past 14 years, flipped the script this year with a 7% gain. Could this mean the infamous “Uptober” may fail to materialize? Meanwhile, Deribit’s Oct. 30 max-pain level sits near $76,000, roughly $8,000 below bitcoin’s $84,144 price at 2 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 30, 2026.

The apparent contradiction puts upside exposure beside a much lower options payout reference point, while roughly $53 billion in futures open interest adds another layer of exposure to a market whose biggest venues aren’t moving in lockstep.

Bitcoin Futures Show Divided Exchange Activity

Futures figures on Wednesday show approximately $53 billion total from individual exchanges. Binance currently holds $11.01 billion, or 20.77% of the tally, against CME’s $8.46 billion and 15.96% sahre. Together, they represent nearly $37 of every $100 in outstanding futures exposure. Open interest measures outstanding contracts, not cash deposited or money newly entering bitcoin.

The next sizable books include Bybit at $5.22 billion, MEXC at $5.05 billion, and Gate at $4.27 billion. The decentralized perps exchange Hyperliquid carries $3.04 billion, ahead of OKX’s $2.94 billion. Historical futures data ends near $53 billion today, well below its visible peak above $90 billion last year. That’s a smaller book, though dollar totals also move with bitcoin’s price.

Over 24 hours, Binance’s open interest rose 2.10% and CME’s gained 1.41%, while Bybit lost 2.54% and OKX shed 1.89%. BingX posted a 37.34% increase to $918.61 million. Zoom into four hours, however, and Binance, CME, Bybit, and OKX all contracted. The shorter window throws cold water on any claim of uniform expansion.

Bitfinex Analysts See Room for Gains as Speculative Froth Clears

In a note shared with Bitcoin.com News on Wednesday afternoon, Bitfinex analysts explained that a lot of the borrowed money and aggressive betting has left the bitcoin market.

“Aggregated futures open interest (OI) is at its lowest since March, implied volatility (IV) sits close to a one-year low, and Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) inflows have slowed to roughly match the pace of new bitcoin issuance,” Bitfinex analysts wrote. “With leverage substantially reduced, the next sustained move will need to be led by the spot market.”

Traders are using less leverage, and futures are offering less incentive to make aggressive bets on bitcoin’s price. Bitfinex said that has sometimes been a healthy setup for bitcoin’s price.

“This combination of contracting OI in response to diminished futures premiums has historically supported price action,” the market strategists explained. “Since 2022, elevated futures settlement ratios paired with compressed carry have preceded a median 30-day gain of 8.9 percent. If current basis rates persist and OI remains flat, the historical patterns suggest that bitcoin could continue to appreciate.”

The Bitfinex analyst team added:

“We expect the current band to decide the next move. While the $82,500 to $84,000 cost basis keeps thickening, buyers are absorbing the coins that overhead holders sell, and each day of that dynamic reduces the supply waiting at breakeven. A reclaim of $85,000 would return the 760,000 BTC held between $84,000 and $85,000 to profit and lift supply in profit back above 75%. At that point, those holders stop being sellers.”

Calls Dominate Bitcoin Options Positions

Options open interest stands around $36 billion this afternoon, after a recent spike above $50 billion before the last big expiry. The call-versus-put panel lists 262,739.4 BTC in calls and 168,854.8 BTC in puts, a put-to-call ratio near 0.64. Calls represent roughly three-fifths of outstanding exposure, but their numerical advantage doesn’t indicate whether traders bought or sold them.

Daily options volume is more evenly divided: 55.08% calls against 44.92% puts, with 34,514.02 BTC and 28,151.67 BTC traded, respectively. Calls provide upside rights; puts provide downside rights. Either can feature in hedges or multileg strategies. A call-heavy tally, by itself, doesn’t establish a marketwide bullish wager. The fine print earns its keep.

Deribit’s Oct. 30 $95,000 call tops the displayed contract rankings on Wednesday with 23,350.8 BTC of open interest. The $90,000 and $100,000 calls for that expiry follow with 18,089.4 BTC and 12,956.7 BTC. Those three strikes total 54,396.9 BTC. Meanwhile, the Oct. 1 $84,000 put ranks second in daily volume, showing activity close to the supplied spot price.

CME Options Shrink Across Expirations

Cryptoquant’s CME expiry metrics show a much smaller outstanding book at September’s end than during late 2025, when plotted totals exceeded 70,000. Recent totals fall sharply from roughly 11,000 to around 6,000 as the nearest bucket drops out. CME’s separate dollar-denominated options stats also end far below late-2025 levels. Calls visually outweigh puts in the latest action, reversing the put-heavy composition visible through much of the intervening period.

Max Pain Sits Below Spot Price

For Oct. 30, the latest max-pain levels are approximately $76,000 on Deribit, $79,000 on Binance, and $80,000 on OKX. Deribit’s October and December expiries each carry roughly $10 billion in notional value. Max pain is the price at which option holders would collect the least at expiration, not a forecast of where bitcoin will land.

December’s reference levels also remain below bitcoin’s price, sitting near $75,000 on Deribit and OKX and around $80,000 on Binance. October’s largest listed call positions, meanwhile, stretch from $90,000 to $100,000, even as the underlying payout math points considerably lower. Both sets of numbers share the same options board, reflecting a market where traders are positioned across a wide range of possible outcomes.