Leading asset manager and Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) issuer VanEck has officially filed a Spot Solana ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), fueling bold growth predictions for the Solana ecosystem. 

Market-making firm GSR Markets recently released a report shedding light on the potential impact of a Solana ETF and highlighting the platform’s emergence as part of the “Big Three” in the crypto space.

Speculation Of A Solana ETF Approval

GSR’s report highlights Solana’s rapid rise within the cryptocurrency industry, positioning it as a major player alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

With the Bitcoin ETF market already approved and Ethereum about to launch a spot ETF in the US, GSR predicts that it’s only a matter of time before Solana follows suit, potentially making the biggest impact. 

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GSR’s analysis highlights three key technological advancements that set Solana apart from its competitors. Firstly, Solana’s proof-of-history enables validators to produce blocks efficiently, resulting in remarkable speed and scalability advantages. 

Second, Solana’s parallel transaction processing enables increased throughput and takes advantage of improvements in computing speed. 

Finally, the company said Solana’s architecture positions it to solve the “blockchain trilemma” by achieving global state synchronization at “unprecedented speeds” as hardware and bandwidth costs decline.

In addition, GSR’s report addresses the likelihood of Solana securing a spot digital asset ETF. While the current regulatory framework requires a federally regulated futures market and a futures-based ETF before a spot product can be considered, GSR believes that the potential for change shouldn’t be underestimated. 

The company also claims bipartisan support for the crypto industry, and shifting attitudes among lawmakers indicate a more favorable environment for digital assets. 

A Trump administration and a liberal SEC commissioner could further pave the way for the launch of spot digital asset ETFs, creating opportunities for Solana and other cryptocurrencies, the report said.

Projected Impact On SOL’s Price

GSR emphasizes the importance of decentralization and potential demand in determining the next spot digital asset ETF. 

Factors such as permissionless participation, developmental control, token allocation, and stake characteristics contribute to a blockchain’s level of decentralization. 

Meanwhile, as indicated by metrics like market cap, potential demand serves as a crucial factor for issuers when assessing future inflows. GSR combines decentralization and demand scores to create an ETF Possibility score, which highlights Ethereum and Solana as leading contenders for the next spot in digital asset ETF.

ETF possibility score. Source: GSR Markets

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Drawing parallels to the effect of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Bitcoin’s price, GSR estimates the potential impact of a Solana ETF on SOL. Adjusting for Solana’s smaller market cap relative to Bitcoin, GSR predicts a 1.4x to 8.9x increase in SOL’s price under different scenarios. 

However, the report acknowledges that the impact could be even higher, considering SOL’s active usage in staking and decentralized applications. In the event of a spot ETF approval, GSR suggests that the potential upside for SOL presents a significant opportunity in the market.

Solana ETF
The 1-D chart shows SOL’s price retrace on Friday. Source: SOLUSD on TradingView.com

As investor excitement over the development became apparent, SOL’s price reached a weekly high of $151 on Thursday, but in the past few hours, SOL has dropped nearly 4% to a current trading price of $143. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 



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