A spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund in the United States may only be possible with a change in the administration and the head of its securities regulator, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

On June 27, ETF issuer VanEck made a surprise move to file for a spot Solana ETF with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said the new fund, called the VanEck Solana Trust, aims to capitalize on Solana’s decentralized nature, high utility and economic feasibility.

However, Balchunas said his “knee jerk reaction” was that the ETFs wouldn’t be approved as there aren’t any Solana futures ETFs in the United States.

Both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) had futures products before spot ETFs as the SEC feared fraud and market manipulation could potentially impact the spot ETF products.

But a new U.S. President and a new leadership at the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2025 could change both of those things, Balchunas said in a June 27 X post.

“Just imagine Hester Peirce (or someone like that) running the SEC.”

Source: Eric Balchunas

Variant Fund’s chief legal officer, Jake Chervinsky, supported the view, pointing out that Peirce’s interpretation of the Securities Exchange Act would likely be more favorable for spot Solana ETF applicants.

The SEC and its Chair, Gary Gensler, labeled the SOL token as a security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.

Debate over Solana ETF’s success

However, Adam Cochran, partner at venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, believes it would have been wiser to clear up SOL’s alleged security status before VanEck filed for a spot Solana ETF.

Source: Adam Cochran

The news was received a bullish response from Anthony Pompliano, a Bitcoin advocate who’s become warmer to the broader cryptocurrency market:

“VanEck filing for a Solana ETF is further proof that altcoins are coming to Wall Street.”

But others aren’t as confident.

Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO at cryptocurrency trading firm Wintermute predicts we’ll see “little inflows” into the soon-to-be launched spot Ether ETFs — which would make it clear how even fewer flows a spot Solana ETF would attract.

“I’m saying this all while Wintermute is long both SOL & ETH, so no fud, just being realistic here. Adoption takes time.”

Related: ASX’s first Bitcoin ETF taps $1.3M volume on first trading day

It comes a week after cryptocurrency asset manager 3iQ filed for a spot Solana ETF in Canada, which marked a North American first.

The Solana ecosystem and network have also received praise from $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton in recent months.

More than $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products are already offered worldwide, including the 21Shares Solana Staking ETP and the ETC Group Physical Solana product in Europe, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, who cited June 20 data.

Source: James Seyffart

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